November 11th, 2016

трампнаш и иммиграция

 Сразу хочу сказать, что абсолютно не являюсь сторонником Дональда, но слёз по поводу Хиллари тоже проливать не собираюсь. А теперь к нашим баранам.
 Вэбсайт иммиграционной службы Канады рухнул сразу после победы Трампа, не выдержав потока любопытствующих и испуганных американцев. О чем это говорит? Во-первых, о том, что у иммиграционной службы очень плохой сайт, который не выдерживает больше десятка посетителей. Во-вторых, что и в Америке полно нашистов, которые при появлении нового лидера устраивают истерику (им нужен один и любимый!). Так было при Обаме и Буше, и канадское ТВ смогло найти одного (1) американца, который действительно иммигрировал в Канаду потому что был избран Буш-младший.
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we should listen to this guy

I read his prediction before Trump won and didn't believe him. Maybe next time

WASHINGTON — He saw his friendships strained, his methods challenged, but in the end he was right again. Allan Lichtman has now predicted nine consecutive presidential election results based on a model he created — topped off by Donald Trump.

Lichtman is deeply critical of polls and the political journalists who rely on them, and he insists his 13-part questionnaire does a far better forecasting job than the squadrons of data nerds who pore over digitized maps of battleground states.

Not that he's happy about it.

"I take no satisfaction in being right (about a Trump win)," the American University history professor said Wednesday.

Still, he's happy to point it out.

Lichtman believes election analysts err by studying campaign as a series of battlefields — northern versus southern Florida, western versus eastern Pennsylvania, and so on. He prefers likening it to dominoes, toppling one way or the other.

He says U.S. campaigns are contests of momentum.

In the early 1980s, he and a colleague examined election results dating back to the Civil War and found a pattern. They drew up 13 true-false statements, and if the answer to six or more was ''False,'' the incumbent party always lost the White House.

Examples include: "The economy is not in recession"; "There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination"; "The party has won seats over the two previous midterms"; and "The candidate is charismatic or a national hero."

It's worked every time since 1984.

This time, he says, the sixth and fateful domino toppled onto Hillary Clinton during the primaries — when she had an unusually strong challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders. Lichtman called upon President Barack Obama to intervene in the primaries, and throw his support to Clinton.

He predicted a Trump win in media interviews — and drew outrage.

''Not (with) hate mail. But I got a ton of criticism,'' said Lichtman, 69, who once ran for a Democratic Senate seat in Maryland.

''I think I lost every Democratic friend I had, at least for a while. I got a lot of pressure to change my prediction... Yeah, this was a very difficult thing for me to stick with... I was under tremendous pressure to change my prediction.''

He made his prediction before the scandals involving the FBI investigation and the vulgar videotaped conversation featuring Trump. He said his prediction held steady, even as pundits and polls bounced around in their predictions.

Don't get him started on the polls.

"We don't need the polls. Polls promote the laziest kind of journalism. So much of journalism is based on slavishly following the polls. You don't even have to get out of bed to follow the polls. It's lazy."

Then again, he confesses, he qualified his earliest predictions earlier in the year. The reason was the unconventionality of the man his model had anointed as the 45th president.

''Because we had such an out-of-the-box, dangerous candidate in Donald Trump,'' he said. ''A history-smasher."

Over time, his prediction grew bolder. And when the results rolled in from Florida, then Wisconsin, he knew the old model had done the trick again.

The clincher, to him, was the primaries. He insists the pressure on Clinton to adopt trade protectionism was contrary to the history of progressive politics — and ultimately doomed her.

National polls didn't actually fare that badly: the average of head-to-head surveys on Real Clear Politics showed Clinton winning the popular vote by 46.8 per cent, and she wound up winning about 48 per cent. They undersold Trump's result by just over three percentage points.

It's several state polls that were wildly off-base.

Pollsters more accurately predicted the result in the last Canadian election.

Alexander Panetta, The Canadian Press



“Therefore, on the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:

  • FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

  • SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

  • THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

  • FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;

  • FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

  • SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

On the same day, I will begin taking the following seven actions to protect American workers:

  • FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205

  • SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

  • THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator

  • FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately

  • FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

  • SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward

  • SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure

Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:

  • FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama

  • SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States

  • THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities

  • FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back

  • FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:

1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.

2. End The Offshoring Act Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.

3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.

4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to gives parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.

5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-site childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.

7. End Illegal Immigration Act Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.

8. Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.

9. Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values

10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

прогулки по воде

 заканчиваются плохо даже для Божьего сына. Кремль выскочил на тонкий лёд. Это ещё не вода, но она рядом, в одном разломе. В английском языке есть такая пословица: “ be careful what you wish for; you may receive it". Кремль не хотел президенства Хиллари, слишком тяжелый багаж был связан с этой дамой. Но дама была весьма предсказуемой и, как профессиональный политик, договорной.
 Трамп станет президентом США и в скрепочных кругах Кремля это вызвало бурную радость (вероятно из-за плохо знания английского и истории). Радость Кремля как и горе американских левых немножко преждевременно.  Что будет делать Трамп не знает даже Дональд и пока можно полагаться только на его программу, которую он изложил в Геттисбурге. А там есть два четких момента - запустить во всю энергетическую программу Америки, убрав запреты на разработку сланцевой нефти и газа (FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.), и начать вооружать Америку (Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment).
 Если при этом учесть, что будущий президент любит повторять: “Америка превыше всего”, то для “многополярного мира” и равноправного партнерства, на котором так настаивает Кремль, остается мало места....Но на сцене появляется тень отца Рональда.
 Одну вещь все республиканские президенты умели делать хорошо - загонять медведя в клетку. А  совковый он или нет, они не интересуются (американцы в этом плане от образования не страдают).
 Так что моим кремлевским товарищам надо сильно подумать, прежде чем бурно апплодировать. Трамп конечно не Рейган, но и РФ далеко не Союз.